When Does Welfare Win Votes?

This research agenda is led by 2022-24 CASI Postdoctoral Research Fellow Shikhar Singh. The project focuses on how recent transformative changes in India’s welfare state affect voting behavior. Shikhar’s analysis suggests that digital public infrastructure has transformed the welfare state in three important ways: there is less discretion and favoritism with a move to rule-based targeting; there are fewer opportunities for rent-seeking through direct benefit transfer; and there has been an expansion in the repertoire of benefits because of public savings and increased capacity. These changes map onto three questions about voting behavior: does rule-based targeting of benefits blunt the logic of ethnic voting, which hinges on intermediaries favoring co-ethnics in the distribution of benefits? Is there public support for welfarism because voters value efficient implementation (less leakages and corruption), or because efficient implementation frees up more resources for the government to deliver benefits? In other words, do voters care about “outcomes” or “process”? Finally, which type of benefits have greatest political impact? Do more expensive benefits have greater impact than relatively inexpensive benefits? Shikhar’s book evaluates these questions using empirical evidence from extensive fieldwork, including experiments, survey of welfare program beneficiaries, and interviews of voters, politicians and bureaucrats. A paper from this project received the Best Paper Award by the Democracy and Autocracy Section at the Annual Political Science Association Conference 2024.