Quo Vadis the Quad? A Deterrence Alliance or Self-Deterred Alignment in Indo-Pacific?

CASI Seminar
Sameer Lalwani
Senior Fellow for Asia Strategy and Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science & Economics
133 South 36th Street, Suite 230
Philadelphia PA 19104-6215

 

Listen to podcast (in conversation with Bilal Baloch, CASI Postdoctoral Research Fellow)

About the Speaker:
Sameer Lalwani is a Senior Fellow for Asia Strategy and Director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center where he researches nuclear deterrence, interstate competition, crisis behavior, and counter/insurgency. He is also an Adjunct Professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, a Contributing Editor to War on the Rocks, and was previously a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the RAND Corporation. Lalwani is the co-editor of Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories (Stimson, 2018). His work has been published in Security Studies, the Journal of Strategic StudiesSmall Wars & InsurgenciesForeign AffairsForeign PolicyCTC Sentinel, and the New York Times,as well as volumes by RAND, New America, Cato, Routledge, Sage, and Oxford University Press. Lalwani completed his Ph.D. from MIT’s Department of Political Science, where he was an affiliate of its Security Studies Program, and a B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley.

About the Lecture:
The reemergence in 2017 of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad” between the US, India, Japan, and Australia again raised questions regarding the purpose of this arrangement—if this purpose is shared by all four countries and whether the alignment is likely to hold any promise for the US as a multilateral security partnership oriented toward deterring China. In particular, India’s lack of enthusiasm for the Quad or any coordinated deterrence relationship above other regional dialogues has come under scrutiny since the Modi-Xi Wuhan summit in 2018. Despite optimism regarding the “natural” convergence of shared values and interests of the four Quad countries in the Indo-Pacific, India’s lukewarm approach to the Quad highlights significant differences in interests and capabilities that persist between the United States and India. Using a typology of alignments as a baseline against which to assess this divergence, Dr. Lalwani argues that the U.S. view of the Quad differs fundamentally from Indian preferences, and identifies several structural reasons for India’s divergence: distinct capabilities, geography, system position, strategic preferences, and the possession of nuclear weapons. These factors contribute to threat perceptions that differ from the US and its Japanese and Australian allies, leading to disparate priorities, magnifying India’s lesser capabilities, and likely limiting India’s contribution to and integration with a deepening multilateral military alignment in the Indo-Pacific over the long-term.

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The Nand & Jeet Khemka Distinguished Lecture Series is an endowed public program of the Center for the Advanced Study of India (CASI). Launched in the 2007-08 academic year, and made possible through the generous support of the Nand & Jeet Khemka Foundation, the series brings renowned India specialists to the Penn community and serves as a critical forum for analyzing and understanding the complex economic, political, social, and cultural changes that the world’s largest democracy is experiencing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead.
The Saluja Global Fellows Program has been made possible by the generous gift from Vishal Saluja ENG’89 W’89. CASI was excited to launch the program during the 2022–23 academic year, coinciding with the Center’s 30th Anniversary. This new program enables CASI to invite eminent leaders and rising experts on contemporary India preferably from the fields of media, culture, law, and contemporary history to be in residence for one to two weeks at CASI.